6 Breakouts in December 2013, how's the performance?

The recent correction ended in the middle of November 2013. Since then, KLCI has been on uptrend for the whole month. Let's see some of the breakouts during the month.

1.  TM (4863)

On 4th of December, price broke the resistance level of RM5.27 and shot to the second resistance level of RM5.44.  However, it closed the day with a bad shooting star. Interestingly, the price shot up for another 3 days to pierce the resistance level of RM5.44 with highest volume in the past 30 calendar days. But the breakout failed to hold as the price dropped to cut loss price of RM5.44.

First breakout with increased volume. Passed.
Second breakout with high volume. Failed.

2.   GENM (4715)

A breakout on 10th December with increased volume. RSI is inching higher. MACD is in positive region. Should one bought at the closing time, is it possible to sell at the next resistance of RM4.47?
Cut loss at recent low.

3.   TDM (2054)

Will you buy this stock based on the price breakout, 11th Dec? Closing price is RM1.04.
 RSI is 72.3. Highest volume in the past 4.5 months.

4.   TNLOGIS (8397)

The stock had a breakout with increased volume on Friday the 13th December 2013. RSI is 79.7 and MACD is still green. Will it hold?

5.   MKH (6114)

Like TDM, this MKH price breakout failed. If one didn't cut loss at the breakout price of RM2.76, the loss can be big as it closed the third trading day with a long black candlestick.

6. TSH (9059)

Since February 2013, the stock moves from the low of RM2.03 to current level of RM3, >30% increase!

On 6th Dec, there was a price breakout at RM2.89. Recent high was RM3. Recent low was RM2.78. Risk-Reward ratio was 1:1. Not attractive enough to move into this counter, right?

On the first 2 weeks of December, I traded TNLOGIS (intraday trade), BSTEAD and YTLPOWR for a nice profit of RM259.88. Such profit is unlikely if I traded any of the above mentioned stocks. You want to know more, do visit cpteh.blogspot.com or better still, subscribe to his monthly RM40 stock watch. Email him at cpteh@yahoo.com

Technical Rebound - Harta

HARTA

A classic technical rebound play. A very nice PV divergence, followed by a white candle. MACD turned green, RSI inched up and Stochastic showed a bullish crossover. Buying at the closing time of the white candle would yield me at least 7% profit the very next day.

Revisiting CIMB

Cimb (1023)

The technical rebound play failed, should I bought based on the bullish harami candlestick. It moved further south and after a week, with a 6% drop, a white candle appeared. Buying at the closing price, using a technical rebound strategy, one could get a 5 % profit after just 2 days.

Technical Rebound - PRESBHD

Presbhd (5204)

KLCI had been going south for the past 2 weeks. A hammer was formed last Wednesday, with increased volume.

Presbhd was showing the same trend as KLCI but a white candle appeared at the end of the line. I bought 27 lots at RM1.84 during closing time. The counter moved upwards the next day and I took home 5% profit before lunch time.

Another breakout - HAPSENG

Hapseng (3034)

So, after three weeks from the doji and touching the 20MA support, there was a breakout.

RSI is over 70. But it shouldn't deter one to buy with a breakout strategy.

A very nice profit for this strategy, this time round. I didn't get any of the action. Did you?

Technical Rebound - Maybank

Maybank (1155)

Let's go back to early 2011. Maybank recorded a RSI less than 30, after 4 long-short-long-short black candles. 5.2% down. 20MA seemed to be in downtrending. High risk but the technical rebound play seemed to work well, accumulating 4.7% profit in a week

A drop of 14.4%, resulting in 3 long black candles. Any takers? If I did buy on the third candles, more than 10% profit was achievable in a month's time.

Still a high risk technical rebound play, 3 long black candles followed by a hammer and a gap down! A profit was still within horizon for the trade.

Towards third quarter of 2012 saw two opportunity for technical rebound play.
 

Early 2013, a nice four black candles with the 4th one a hammer but a small profit. Still a profit; not a loss.

One long black candlestick. Followed by a doji.. and another doji. Nope. Not a technical rebound play. Not yet. Give me more black candlesticks for a technical rebound play, please.

20MA line is going down side. Uncertainty is looming.

Technical Rebound - CIMB

Cimb (1023)

I observed that 2 or 3 long black candlesticks gave me an opportunity to buy. Though I'm aware of Three Black Crows candlesticks. My understanding of the candlesticks is based on http://www.thepatternsite.com/ThreeBlackCrows.html

Cimb showed 3 black long candlesticks 3 weeks ago and the price formed a support line which eventually moved up for a 4.4% profit.

This week, a 3-black not so long candlesticks were seen again. Are we going to see another 4.4%? Bear in mind that KLCI had dropped 81 points in the week.

Let's do more back testing on the stock.

Starting from Valentine Day 2013, 4 black candlesticks were formed. A drop of 3.8%. If I had bought on the closing time of the fourth candlestick, 4.2% profit was achievable.

On 12th March 2013, 3 black candlesticks with the fourth one a hammer, dropping a 3.8%. If I had bought on the closing time of the hammer, 4.3% profit was attainable.

Hmm.. I need more evidences.

After 5th September 2012, 5 black candlesticks appeared after dividend was given. In fact, 5th black candle was a hammer. Buying at closing time on the 5th candle could generate me 5.8% in a week.

 After a shooting star, 3 black candlesticks were seen. A drop of 6.3%. Buying on the 3rd candlestick, should be able to gain 4.5%.

However, if one bought at hammer during early 2013, it would be a long long waiting game. But the result turned out to be a favorable one. 6.2%

This week alone, a drop 7.6% on Cimb counter. RSI is inching up but the rest in negative territory. Yesterday, a bullish harami. Today's low is lower than yesterday's low. Am I taking the bait for technical rebound play?

As a newbie, I must avoid these stocks

AT ALL COST. No matter how attractive it may seem.

1.  CAREPLS (0163)
2.  EUPE (6815)
3.  GUH (3247)
4.  HARVEST (9342)
4.  JCY(5161)
5.  KINSTEL (5060)
6.  PUNCAK (6807)
7.  RUBEREX (7803)
8.  SMARTAG (0169)
9.  TIGER (7079)
10.TNLOGIS (8397)
11.UTOPIA (0140)

GENTING (3182) - Revamp work on current theme park will hurt earning

Breakout - Harta

HARTA (5168)

On 19th June 2013, a shooting star was formed. The stock dived and if one managed to attempt a technical rebound play, a 10% profit awaited.

For 2 weeks, the price was struggling to pierce through resistance level.

According to Investopedia,

What Is a Breakout?A breakout is a stock price that moves outside a defined support or resistance level with increased volume. A breakout trader enters a long position after the stock price breaks above resistance

One fine day, there was a breakout. Price inched higher than resistance level with increased volume.
But followed by a doji and a hanging man. Should one followed the trading plan, of awaiting 8% profit, one can easily achieve that today.

8% profit in ten days' time!

Breakout - Malton

MALTON (6181)

I planned to trade this counter in a very short time period.

Breakout happened yesterday after the price consolidated for seven weeks.

MACD line crossed over signal line with increased volume. Price was increasing for the past 3 days.

My understanding of MACD for breakout trading was based on http://www.remisiers.org/cms_images/guppyspeaks/Guppyspeaks_A/MACD_INDICATOR_FOR_BREAKOUT_TRADING.pdf

I bought 50 lots at RM0.92 this morning with target price of recent high RM0.94. Profit is enough for a nice lunch.

Update: My selling queue of RM0.925, 50 lots, was filled at around 4pm, last Friday. No profit. Small broking fees were incurred.

Breakout - Tebrau

TEBRAU (1589)

For the past seven weeks, resistance level of RM1.41 was formed. Earlier on, a failed breakout, with a long white candlestick, happened. Yesterday, another breakout with a closing price of RM1.43

Did I miss the boat?

As per yesterday, MACD is in positive region. A bullish crossover is seen. RSI is notching up.

Today, price opened at RM1.44 but went south to close at RM1.40 during lunch time. I grabbed at the opportunity. RM1.41 for 35 lots.

Will the second breakout a successful one?

Update: I accidentally sold off 35 lots at RM1.34 today, 26th August 2013 for a RM275 loss.
Horizontal support level is RM1.33. Low volume for the past week.

Breakout - GENM

GENM (4715)

GENM is a good stock for trading purpose.

Breakout #1 : After 7 months, with 5 times of price hitting resistance level of RM3.73, the price broke out. 5% profit could be generated from the price breakout, after 3 weeks.

Breakout #2 : Since price hit RM4 on the 1st of July 2013, and another 2 episodes of price reaching resistance level, opportunity knocks again. Price pierced through RM4 to close at RM4.01. Anyone bought at closing time, would have been smiling all the way to the bank as a long white candlestick appeared the next day. Profit was a cool 5% in 24 hours!

Breakout - Favco

Favco (7229)

A similar uptrending, Hapseng-like stock. The potential profit after each breakouts for the past 2 months is big, ranging 11%-15%.

Breakout #1 - Four days before, the price did break out but it went south. It did manage to break the resistance line again, only to move down, touching the support line. When the very clear long white candlestick appeared, it would have rake it at least 11%.

3 weeks passed before Breakout 2 was formed. And profit taking should be done the next day when the long white candlestick was made.

Breakout #3 was fast and furious. 15% profit on Day3! But not with a shooting star.

Price is currently consolidating, awaiting breakout. Trade breakout #4, anyone?

Breakout - Hapseng

Hapseng (3034)

A very nice uptrending stock with several opportunity of breakouts' buyings.

A good fundamental stocks. In a short two months' time, one can easily earn 15% on this one stock alone if one adheres to the trading plan. If one is patient enough. If one doesn't cut loss unnecessarily based on market sentiment.

Once breakout, the stock will have long white candlesticks, and it's time to sell.

As currently KLCI hovers around 1800, at its resistance level, the profit margin are reduced dramatically. With a clear doji at the top, probably it's time to say thank you and see you again.

Breakouts

I bought my first 2013 KLCI stock on 3rd June 2013 with the breakout strategy.

My understanding of breakout was based on the info given in the site. http://www.investopedia.com/articles/trading/08/trading-breakouts.asp.

Ivory (5175)

Support horizontal line was formed at RM0.725 as the price moved higher and soon after two long black candlesticks were formed. Support was breached.

On the next day, there was a price breakout at RM0.725, giving an opportunity to initiate a buy. But, it was always better to have a confirmation. 4 days later, price went back to support line.

Another breakout was seen on the next day, a good time to buy, which I did at RM0.725. Selling price should be at the resistance of RM0.75. Cut loss at RM0.70, giving a risk reward ratio of 1:1.

The price did go higher than the anticipated level and went back to support line days later, followed by another buying opportunity the next day.

But as soon as the Three Black Crow candlesticks was formed, it's the end of the trading of Ivory, for the moment.